Wellington: New Zealand faces weeks of political uncertainty after its general election produced a near-deadlock, leaving the country's major political blocs dependent on coalition talks and the final count of special votes to determine who will form the next government.
According to the Associated Press (AP), provisional results from Saturday's election placed incumbent Prime Minister Christopher Luxon's centre-right National Party and its conservative allies just above the parliamentary majority threshold. However, neither Luxon nor opposition leader Chris Hipkins has secured a clear mandate to govern.
The results have also strengthened smaller political parties, giving them greater influence over government formation. Among them is Opportunity, led by political newcomer Qiulae Wong, which secured seven seats in its first successful parliamentary election.
Wong has indicated that her party is open to working with either political bloc, making it a potentially decisive player if the final numbers leave both sides short of a majority.
The New Zealand Electoral Commission's preliminary results show that National received 29.21 per cent of the party vote, narrowly behind Labour's 29.36 per cent.
However, National secured 42 parliamentary seats against Labour's 36. The difference reflects the country's electoral system, under which constituency victories and party-list allocations determine the final composition of Parliament.
National's potential governing partners, ACT New Zealand and New Zealand First, won 13 and 12 seats respectively. Together, the three parties currently command 67 seats in the 131-member Parliament, one more than the 66 required for a majority.
The opposition grouping of Labour, the Greens, and Te Pāti Māori has 57 seats on the preliminary count. It would need additional support to form a government.
The preliminary numbers do not represent the final outcome. According to the New Zealand Electoral Commission, approximately 399,365 special votes remain to be processed, including votes cast by citizens living overseas.
These ballots could alter the distribution of parliamentary seats. Reuters reported that special votes have historically favoured left-leaning parties, including Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori.
The Electoral Commission has scheduled the announcement of official results for November 27. The counting process includes checking voter eligibility, recounting ordinary votes and verifying special ballots.
Both major political blocs are expected to wait for the final figures before beginning formal negotiations.
The election has also marked a significant breakthrough for the Opportunity Party, which entered Parliament for the first time with seven seats.
Led by Qiulae Wong, the party received 5.96 per cent of the party vote, according to the Electoral Commission.
Wong has indicated that Opportunity is willing to negotiate with either political bloc. This could give the party considerable influence if the final results leave both sides unable to secure a working majority.
However, the path to a new government could remain complicated. Reuters reported that Luxon had previously ruled out working with Opportunity, although the party has expressed its willingness to discuss possible arrangements.
ACT and New Zealand First are also likely to have greater bargaining power in negotiations, given their importance to the National-led bloc's current parliamentary majority.
New Zealand follows the Mixed Member Proportional (MMP) system, under which voters cast two ballots: one for a political party and another for their preferred local constituency candidate.
The New Zealand Parliament's official explanation of the system states that the party vote largely determines how many seats each party receives, while electorate votes decide the representatives elected from individual constituencies.
This system allows smaller parties to gain parliamentary representation and makes coalition arrangements important when no single party secures enough seats to govern independently.
The 2026 Parliament is projected to have 131 members, including additional seats arising from the allocation rules. A majority requires 66 seats.
Until a new government is formed, Luxon will remain in office as caretaker Prime Minister.
The AP reported that Luxon urged New Zealanders to take a break from political discussions while the final results are awaited.
"I think everyone's over politics, so let's all have a bit of a break for the next three weeks," he told reporters on Sunday.
According to Reuters, the caretaker government can continue routine administration but is expected to consult the incoming government on significant decisions.
If the parties fail to reach an agreement on forming a government, another election could become necessary.
(With inputs from agencies)